An Eye on North Korea
by Jeff Nelson
Multiple talks have finally resulted in progress with North Korea in the area of nuclear weapons, and it is about time. Two weeks ago the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon was shut down, the event confirmed by IAEA inspectors. Hopefully future talks can continue the cooperation from all sides and the termination of North Korean nuclear capabilities.
So the story goes... During February of 2007, six nations struck an agreement to initialize an end to the North Korean nuclear programs. The talks between North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the U.S. resulted in UN: IAEA nuclear inspectors returning to North Korea and the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon closing operations. All five facilities a the Yongbyon complex have been confirmed shut down and the aid is flowing into North Korea. After receiving the first 50,000 tons of energy aid in the form of fuel oil the North Korean minister to the U.N. declared that the reactor was shut down. Confirmation came a few days later, after which the first sixty trucks carrying rice crossed the border into North Korea as part of the promised 400,000 tons of food aid. The agreement last February called for one million tons in energy aid and the promised food aid to be given to North Korea in exchange for shutting down the nuclear complex at Yongbyon, declaring all nuclear programs, and disabling all other existing nuclear facilities.
The first steps have been taken, but talks last week failed to set a timetable for disclosing and disabling all nuclear programs. Nobody wants the process to drag on and the U.S. envoy would like to see the process completed by the end of the year. But if you ask me that it a little two optimistic. It took over four years of talks to get a nuclear reactor shut down. Pushing the rest of the deal through in less then six months seems like it may stint the progress that has been made with the rouge state. They are considering providing other forms of energy aid to North Korea to quicken the process because they only have the capability to receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil a month. That means we are looking at around twenty months if no other forms of aid are provided.
Drawing out the process a little bit longer may
be a benefit. I can see cutting down the process by a few months or a
year, but trying to hurry everything up may come back to bite us. The
longer process should ensure that the IAEA has plenty of time for setting up surveillance and managing the dismemberment of the complex at Yongbyon
and other facilities. Sending the aid over a longer period of time
can be used as an extra bargaining chip in negotiations to get full
disclosure from North Korea and eventually convince them to turn over
their nuclear materials. Providing more aid faster could even be used
as incentive to agree on a timetable when the working groups meet again
in August.
With the capabilities North Korea has shown, getting the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon
shut down is a step in the right direction toward reigning-in the unpredictable state. As they say, "the journey of a thousand miles begins with a
single step." The first few steps have been taken, but we should still be questioning how far we have really traveled before we start running. We have no
guarantees when it comes to North Korea and the stability of the regime there, but so far a little bit of
patience and diplomacy has paid off. Hopefully this sets a precedent
for dealing with other nations like say Iran...
Sources:
BBC News: "N Korea talks finish without deal" 20 Jul. 2007 <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6907709.stm>.
BBC News: "North Korea talks set no deadline" 19 Jul. 2007 <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6905806.stm>.
CNN.com: "S. Korea: NK willing to disable nuke program"
18 Jul. 2007 <http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/07/18/nkorea.nuclear.ap/index.html#cnnSTCText>.
BBC News: "Small step on long road for N. Korea" 18 Jul. 2007 <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6901861.stm>.
CNN.com: "UN: All N. Korea nuclear facilities
closed" 18 Jul. 2007 <http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/07/18/north.korea.inspectors.reut/index.html#cnn STCTex
>.
The Economist: "North Korea: Pyongyangology" 7 Jul. 2007, p. 59.




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